By Stephen Tilton, REALTOR® · July 2026 · Data: Robert J. Shiller, Irrational Exuberance (3rd ed.), U.S. real home price index, updated by the author.
Almost every home price chart you see is lying to you — not on purpose, but by omission. It shows nominal prices, the number on the deed, which always marches upward because the dollar itself keeps shrinking. Strip inflation out and the picture changes completely.
The chart below is the honest version. It runs from 1890 to today, and every value is stated in constant dollars using the Case-Shiller index measured against CPI. What it shows surprises most people — including a lot of agents.
Case-Shiller Home Price Index deflated by CPI. Hover any year for its value and how far it sits from the long-run average.
| Year | Real index | vs. long-run avg |
|---|
Source: Robert J. Shiller, Irrational Exuberance (3rd ed.), U.S. real home price data, updated by the author; index deflated by CPI. Annual values (January), current through 2026. Index scaled so the 1890–2026 mean equals 154.
From 1890 through the late 1990s, the line oscillates around a flat average near 154. It dips, it spikes, it spends the 1920s and 1930s well underwater — bottoming at 89.8 in 1921 — and it climbs back. But it does not trend up. A house bought in 1900 and sold in 1990 preserved your purchasing power. It did not multiply it.
That is worth sitting with, because it contradicts the thing everyone “knows” about real estate. Homes were never a machine for outrunning inflation. The wealth in real estate came from somewhere else: leverage, rental income, the forced savings of a mortgage, and the tax code. Appreciation was the bonus, not the engine.
The first is 2006. Real prices ran to 266.9, roughly 73% above the long-run average, on a wave of loose credit. That one resolved the hard way: by 2012 the index was back to 173.3, having given up every point of the run-up. Anyone who bought at the top and had to sell in that window learned what a real correction feels like.
The second departure is the one we are living in. Since 2020 the index has gone from 241 to a 2025 high of 298.2 — about 94% above the long-run average and roughly 10% above the 2006 peak in real terms. Whether that resolves like 2006 did, or holds as a genuine repricing driven by a decade of underbuilding and demographics, is the honest open question. I do not know, and neither does anyone selling you certainty.
Time in the market beats timing it, but the entry price still matters. The 2006 buyers who held through 2012 are fine today. The ones who had to sell were not. Which group you land in has less to do with the market than with whether your purchase left you room to breathe — reserves, a payment you can carry if income dips, no need to move on someone else’s schedule.
Do not underwrite a rental on appreciation. A century of data says the property may simply track inflation. If the deal only works when the value climbs, it is not a deal — it is a bet. Make it work on rent, on the debt paydown, and on the tax treatment. Let appreciation be the upside you did not need.
And read the national chart as context, not as your market. This is a U.S. index. Central Florida has its own supply picture, its own insurance math, and its own migration story — and right now our local inventory is up sharply while national prices sit at record real levels. Those two facts pull in different directions, which is exactly why the local numbers matter more to your decision than this chart does.
If you want to know where your specific street sits — not the country, not even Orlando, but your block — that is a conversation I am happy to have. It is usually a short one, and it is free.
This article is educational and reflects the author’s views at the time of writing. It is not legal, tax, or investment advice, and historical data does not predict future prices. The chart shows a national index; individual markets and properties vary widely.
National charts are context. Your decision runs on local numbers — recent comps, days on market, and what buyers in your price band are really paying. Stephen will pull them for you.